Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad0c43ee05a6405c06bc22576e0a9623bf43cbad8ec140ffa317ac469c7f5765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 16c | 3,286$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 3c | 1,051$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 7c | 861.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 836$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 730.77$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 40c | 699.83$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 641.25$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 2c | 628.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 606.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 580.43$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 11c | 561.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 6c | 552.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 12c | 536.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 16c | 452.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 58c | 425.05$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.32 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 423.51$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 7c | 401.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3d…977abacked Yes | 43c | 384.9$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 62cpaid | -69%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 384.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 376.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.47 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 15c | 324.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed No | 78c | 302.75$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 64c | 302.28$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.05 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 7c | 255.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked Yes | 43c | 249.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 60c | 245.45$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 13c | 233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 6c | 229.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 26c | 219.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 7c | 215.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 9c | 203.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 194.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 10c | 150.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 7c | 143.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked No | 77c | 138.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 7c | 136.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 56c | 126.31$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked No | 80c | 125.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 122.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 100.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 46c | 97.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 21c | 90.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 70c | 87.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 72c | 82.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 79.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 56c | 70.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed No | 42c | 67.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 65.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 73c | 60.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 22c | 59.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 74c | 56.34$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 75c | 54.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…38bbbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 38.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked No | 52c | 36.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 39c | 36.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 31.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 75c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +583.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 34c | 30.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 30.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5161…177abacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 24.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…e150backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.