Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9285ecc5a24048f9bee94de7962d8118df4d70e6a3d7036adeaf192367eecf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 3,698$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 2,999$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 14c | 1,250$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 28c | 1,144$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 9c | 929.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 653.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 27c | 552.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 67c | 520$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.09 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 6c | 427.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 19c | 404.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 390.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 386.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…b428backed Yes | 26c | 383.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 19c | 335.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 79c | 322$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 231.82$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 225.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed No | 76c | 224.97$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 214$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 209.78$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 203.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4c…4070backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 13c | 199.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…bcc3backed Yes | 40c | 184.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 62c | 183$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f63…42f2backed No | 66c | 180.69$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 27c | 179.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 78c | 176.12$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed No | 64c | 167.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 158.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf367…212ebacked Yes | 26c | 158.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 152.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 42c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 21c | 145.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 79c | 144.15$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 74c | 130.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…5c3ebacked Yes | 37c | 121.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 17c | 121.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 117.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 64c | 106.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 29c | 104.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 31c | 100.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 35c | 100.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 82.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…95c0backed Yes | 28c | 82.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 33c | 80.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 20c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 68c | 77.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03e…a2ebbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 40c | 74.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 67c | 74.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…a991backed No | 77c | 70.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 62c | 65.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 63.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 23c | 61.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e10…b8d4backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 58.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 66c | 57.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 33c | 54.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 37c | 54.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 78c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…c77dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 50.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 48.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 41c | 48.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 30c | 47.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 80c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 78c | 45.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…14f5backed Yes | 25c | 43.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 71c | 42.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…ced2backed Yes | 28c | 39.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 38.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 27c | 37.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 37.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked No | 64c | 34.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 62c | 33.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed Yes | 35c | 32.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed No | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…c39ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba88…a08ebacked No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 37c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.