Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc542956d749da39d169d7d2e15266ddd0e98724f1749571781ffe44d54338e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 63c | 4,197$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.17 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 7c | 2,112$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 2,008$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked No | 52c | 1,580$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.93 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 1,384$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.3 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 15c | 1,114$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 38c | 1,019$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.55 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 839.12$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.49 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 775.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 6c | 595.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 75c | 562.43$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.09 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 24c | 550.11$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 79c | 534.04$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 66c | 508.43$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 10c | 500$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 13c | 447.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.92 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 62c | 433.23$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 391.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 14c | 368.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 18c | 340.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 7c | 339.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 27c | 326.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 322.36$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 42c | 312.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 298.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.66 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 8c | 296.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 79c | 294.66$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 19c | 267.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed No | 19c | 264.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8b…bf75backed Yes | 73c | 235.84$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 233.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 13c | 227.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 222.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 33c | 209.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…01c3backed Yes | 74c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.25 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 56c | 178.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 158.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 70c | 157.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 38c | 157.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 21c | 156.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 152.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.08 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 23c | 151.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 8c | 144.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 142.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…a991backed Yes | 16c | 140.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 19c | 139.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 14c | 138.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.71 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 9c | 138.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 27c | 135.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 133.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 130.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 54c | 130.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Yes | 78c | 127.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…b4cdbacked Yes | 80c | 125.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 117.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5da…de02backed Yes | 21c | 110.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 56c | 108.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 76c | 106.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 18c | 103$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 68c | 102.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked No | 68c | 100.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b0…ec7dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…b9e6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 95.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 72c | 86.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed Yes | 58c | 77.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 17c | 67.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 31c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked Yes | 65c | 59.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 58.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffb…f5e4backed Yes | 20c | 56.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 53c | 56.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 37c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 75c | 52.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…7e1ebacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ff…f3a0backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 40c | 48.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 35c | 47.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 79c | 44.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.