Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa923dbae4b1e59f50b36c9ffd835f45ce1a23bc57838a686a9b7483ef6639189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,673$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5c…63babacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +624.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 7c | 1,034$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 969.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 6c | 707.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 21c | 600$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 72c | 598.07$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 534.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed No | 75c | 520$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.68 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 4c | 377.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 281.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 273.78$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 10c | 249.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 13c | 233.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 220$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…adc5backed No | 71c | 200.77$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 38c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 171.09$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 161.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 63c | 155.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…2e22backed Yes | 38c | 151.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 143.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 140.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed No | 69c | 137.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed7…e170backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2231…952bbacked Yes | 13c | 128.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 117.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 115.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 115.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 110.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 102.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 40c | 100.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 37c | 100.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 34c | 87.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 76.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 75.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…eeaebacked Yes | 33c | 72.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 77c | 64.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 34c | 57.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…76b3backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…097dbacked Yes | 32c | 52.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…09b0backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…1cc2backed Yes | 41c | 48.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 47.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 36c | 41.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 64c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…a511backed Yes | 40c | 32.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…8d5dbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…c39ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbb…907dbacked No | 69c | 28.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…72c1backed Yes | 40c | 25.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 60c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…4379backed No | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…fa77backed No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 60c | 16.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…91f1backed No | 68c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.