Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8556a95c191bc5939e8b698a69453b6a655e09e8c2f482f1eef0148bc60b7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 3c | 1,526$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 1,431$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 990.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 76c | 817.42$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 787.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 565.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 35c | 532.11$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 500$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 40c | 493.57$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.74 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 13c | 416.23$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0452…34b7backed No | 67c | 404$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 380.33$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 34c | 369.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.09 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 73c | 344$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 330.14$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 330$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 64c | 306.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 292.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 43c | 281.4$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 280.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 266.47$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 248.03$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 65c | 245.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…1445backed Yes | 36c | 244.83$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 236$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 229.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 31c | 227.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 46c | 226.81$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 206.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 19c | 195$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 63c | 194.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 28c | 181.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 39c | 178.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 174.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 166.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 33c | 151.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 12c | 144.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes | 39c | 139.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 13c | 135.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 38c | 134.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5053…50f0backed Yes | 38c | 130.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes | 37c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 40c | 128.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 39c | 122.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…1322backed Yes | 40c | 121.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 29c | 113.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 35c | 111.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 9c | 111.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 108.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…6866backed Yes | 40c | 100.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 99.76$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 63c | 99.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 40c | 96.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 91.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 33c | 89.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 86.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 72c | 84.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 33c | 80.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 24c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 78.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 76.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 58c | 75.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 40c | 73.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 34c | 73.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes | 36c | 73.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 23c | 71.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 66.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 66.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 36c | 65.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 64c | 65.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 65.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 37c | 64.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 35c | 64.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 69c | 62.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 30c | 61.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 34c | 58.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 27c | 56.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 55c | 52.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 51.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 68c | 50.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 50.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.