TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,498
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,498 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbf…0771backed Yes3c1,526$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.45205%1 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+66.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes2c1,431$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.711,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes11c990.29$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.529520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked No76c817.42$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.486471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes3c787.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.121,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes18c565.76$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.662,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes35c532.11$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.6728441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes40c493.57$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7419338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes13c416.23$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0452…34b7backed No67c404$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c380.33$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.583,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes34c369.97$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked No73c344$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.881353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No67c330.14$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.132,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c330$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No64c306.4$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.128955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes28c292.03$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.842,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes43c281.4$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.061,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c280.83$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.848,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No65c266.47$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c250$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No65c248.03$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No65c245.67$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5653525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8e…1445backed Yes36c244.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.122934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No60c236$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.684,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c229.78$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.081,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes31c227.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.4821236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes46c226.81$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.56431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes39c206.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.953,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.15332.1%17 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f6…15a2backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817.4%6 W · 75 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes36c199.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7230813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes19c195$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x938e…2ee3backed No63c194.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.317659.2%45 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes28c181.68$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes39c178.68$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c174.92$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.795,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c166.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes33c151.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.195343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes12c144.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3884…4a9cbacked Yes39c139.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes13c135.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.586053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes38c134.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2711240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5053…50f0backed Yes38c130.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes37c130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes41c130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.13935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes40c128.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2613424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes39c122.66$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebec…1322backed Yes40c121.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes29c113.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes35c111.83$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3429740.7%121 W · 176 L+11.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes9c111.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.17287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-82.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c108.23$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.892,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c105$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes40c100.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.072846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1728742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde1…914bbacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1717…1f7cbacked No61c99.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396536.9%24 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No65c99.76$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.682,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No63c99.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes40c96.03$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0112735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No52c91.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1218052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.64,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes30c90$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes33c89.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes39c86.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.761,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07e0…ac5cbacked No72c84.23$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.582965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed Yes33c80.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.511323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.861,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes24c79.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.316626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c78.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No65c76.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8253437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No58c75.83$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes40c73.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4536057.5%207 W · 153 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes34c73.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7319022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb19f…7f0fbacked Yes36c73.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.143644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes23c71.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6637835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes44c69.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.835429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c66.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.961,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No56c66.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.939158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes36c65.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5825946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No64c65.36$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6616968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No76c65.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes37c64.57$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9518837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes35c64.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4915152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed No69c62.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.058361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes30c61.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.171,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes34c58.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2062137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes27c56.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.063,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48dc…813bbacked Yes55c52.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes39c51.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No65c51.33$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7534250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No68c50.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4538258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c50.76$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.