Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf58060a8afc86997bad7d5365417420f863b7a014af10c12f39d5c9e4d1a36f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 5,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 2,380$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.94 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 2,097$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,564$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,007$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 986.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 7c | 861.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 13c | 839.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 13c | 781.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed Yes | 14c | 656.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 5c | 544.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 533.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 13c | 499.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 476.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 16c | 464.08$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 7c | 439.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 10c | 429.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 411.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 400$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 14c | 390.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 16c | 339.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 306.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 21c | 303.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 286.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 79c | 282$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…7fd7backed Yes | 17c | 266.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 261.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 250.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…e5b5backed Yes | 13c | 247.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 7c | 233.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 15c | 199.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebec…1322backed Yes | 18c | 171.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 12c | 168.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 16c | 152.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…4748backed Yes | 17c | 134.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 128.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 21c | 119.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 111.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 9c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…95f3backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631d…a059backed Yes | 19c | 102.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…ddd7backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 17c | 97.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 95.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 18c | 93.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 14c | 92.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 86.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 13c | 85.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 13c | 85.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 26c | 78.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 17c | 77.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596f…248abacked Yes | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed Yes | 30c | 60.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc45c…d162backed No | 71c | 52.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c42…d6b9backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc1…99e6backed No | 79c | 38.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 79c | 37.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…b516backed No | 73c | 33.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677b…f4eabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 80c | 20.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 66c | 17.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 65c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 78c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 75c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5925…6cc4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.