Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c403987ffa5c80ad107c3ffb578b7e79e6fdaee8fa10b6bbd1fcf7a1bdce173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 13,124$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 2,348$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,509$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.95 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 417.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…d132backed Yes | 15c | 340.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 8c | 333.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 14c | 300.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 270.9$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed No | 79c | 233.92$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 7c | 230$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 14c | 221.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 218.72$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 11c | 214.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 191.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 173.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 170.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 13c | 169.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 15c | 151.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 14c | 149.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 12c | 149.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…bfbfbacked Yes | 11c | 138.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +189.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 17c | 135.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 16c | 128.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 11c | 126.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 123.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 15c | 121.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 114.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 18c | 95.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed Yes | 16c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cc…9702backed Yes | 17c | 69.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 62.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 52.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 51.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…8b8dbacked Yes | 22c | 45.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 33c | 34.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 23.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 79c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.