TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x00ff…aa2abacked Yes32c2,212$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.321258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes36c1,973$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No62c1,656$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.8439966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes28c1,443$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8726025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes10c952.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8513842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes3c951$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9984930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes48c777.58$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed No65c773.74$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.5116934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c741$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.615,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No75c653.24$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed Yes42c566.37$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.257347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c444.37$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.531,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb42a…ebeabacked Yes38c430.74$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.032638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad2…5b01backed No63c425.19$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.941533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes22c411.91$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1831219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No79c395.71$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0926265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No69c355.38$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4137942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x103e…78b5backed No65c342.8$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.1416134.2%55 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes19c342.54$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4763323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes22c335.83$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2548919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c317.23$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.483,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes39c310.85$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes22c308.25$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes34c301.7$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.632,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes7c286.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No65c286.63$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.8976755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes13c283.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.142,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes37c269.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No50c249.96$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.982,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No50c246.2$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.125358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c244.14$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d2…ff97backed Yes21c230.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.452240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes10c225.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes17c222.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.293,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c209.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d5…cf99backed Yes31c209.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c200.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes38c200.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0671031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes6c198.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.643,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No77c194.98$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No60c190.63$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23d5…3cfabacked Yes14c176.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c175.83$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.882,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No58c173.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c170$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes11c167.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0415923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No59c162.35$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9965965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No59c160.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes55c153.1$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.691,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…ab50backed Yes33c150.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes21c140.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No65c139.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.182,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No62c134.69$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No54c129.84$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.778,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes22c129.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5419648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No77c129.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0588650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd08a…cfe2backed Yes39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c124.16$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.741,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes39c119.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.651947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+142.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes16c118.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7411515.7%18 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c117.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.317,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc87d…061dbacked Yes34c112.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf613…2a52backed Yes38c110.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes36c110$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe938…3941backed Yes46c108.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No70c108.3$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.172,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No57c105$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No65c104.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes33c101.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No74c100.56$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.662,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3825175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb9b8…b518backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfea4…4a77backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153461.8%21 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c99.46$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes33c99.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3351733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes32c89.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.814635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0cb…c123backed Yes40c89.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.471136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No64c86.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.485,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes18c85.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c85.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef14…3edabacked No66c75.32$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3217744.6%79 W · 98 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c73.33$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.332,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7164…24fabacked No69c69.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.57550.7%38 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No63c68$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.382,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa921…f0eabacked No68c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.889362.4%58 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e8…c991backed Yes19c63.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f3…d2acbacked Yes40c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.82321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No64c61$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9663757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2414043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.559239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9848…f408backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.753132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b38…df69backed Yes36c59.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No59c58.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8419057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c56.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f8…853cbacked Yes38c51.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes29c51.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.