Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf9292cd561b74b65e253b4daf16af67151cc85622ee04143153c7880b38cbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 2,305$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,650$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 4c | 1,466$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,411$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 6c | 1,036$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 6c | 765.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 740.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 8c | 739.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 9c | 735.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 6c | 602.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 10c | 601.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 3c | 592.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 4c | 556.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 3c | 520$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 7c | 518.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 4c | 511.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 7c | 505.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 3c | 450$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 435.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 425.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 4c | 396$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…5b01backed Yes | 14c | 392.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 3c | 362.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 355.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 8c | 350.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 7c | 346.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 341.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…09afbacked Yes | 6c | 338.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 9c | 328.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d5…3cfabacked Yes | 6c | 293.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 285.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 5c | 284.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 276.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 6c | 240.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 235.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 10c | 233.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 233$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 5c | 213.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 13c | 207.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 8c | 199.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 7c | 183.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 11c | 181.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 180.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…e877backed Yes | 8c | 177.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x593e…8cc6backed Yes | 10c | 137.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 10c | 124.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…4cb1backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 11c | 109.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 95.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…3a4ebacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.