TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$544,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$509,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $544,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x431d…a7d9backed Yes16c78,776$12,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,919.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes0c30,240$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.242020%4 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c17,492$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.98580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c11,300$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.992400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x287f…d819backed Yes2c10,016$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…23e4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa927…878abacked Yes3c9,278$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes5c8,552$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4828320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed Yes18c6,433$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.211145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed Yes2c5,749$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.457728.6%22 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed Yes14c5,615$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c5,391$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Yes1c5,130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.53228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,130$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.313989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a6…7049backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes1c3,979$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.71850%9 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes4c3,972$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.72147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes1c3,699$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55825.9%15 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes15c3,692$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.82927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d8f…bcebbacked Yes2c2,571$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes1c2,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes10c2,277$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.461915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes18c2,149$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.93859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084e…b618backed Yes14c2,053$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed Yes14c1,961$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes11c1,955$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.5411940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84f7…a820backed Yes11c1,775$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes7c1,600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.515227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes6c1,595$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes5c1,570$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.19385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdec1…d355backed Yes2c1,566$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes4c1,520$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0615124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…0828backed Yes1c1,476$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes1c1,451$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick40cpaid-84.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No73c1,307$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.210056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…5017backed Yes2c1,278$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.15616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+86.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a30…22f1backed Yes1c1,227$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0678…9fd0backed Yes9c1,183$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes2c1,123$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5721…0da3backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe161…4ebfbacked Yes28c1,082$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdd…f771backed Yes12c1,076$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes7c999.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865c…ea31backed Yes8c975$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes8c948.89$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.951070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes11c891.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2c…1771backed Yes4c809$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbe…d6d5backed Yes12c806.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9810…4925backed Yes5c783$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.421533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes1c778.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0324035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd8…91c8backed Yes18c774.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a6…cb71backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes16c745.03$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.874814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5f…afc8backed Yes2c730.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf8d…e3ccbacked Yes2c705.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853e…5e10backed Yes16c687.07$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11370%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c673.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked Yes2c638.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x373f…2561backed Yes5c627.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes12c616.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1939…0f41backed Yes9c600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.94944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes8c570.45$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4214742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes18c566.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b6…360fbacked Yes9c537.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes3c505.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes4c500.43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb81…935cbacked Yes6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-83.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes21c486.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3961…1397backed Yes10c471.03$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabc…a190backed Yes22c463.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick16cpaid+92%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffe9…d9e3backed Yes11c448.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes8c443.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ef…09a8backed Yes12c420.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-68.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfd9…2963backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes16c412.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.829810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242532%8 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…5e08backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+130.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes9c392.22$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.074221.4%9 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5771…fe1abacked Yes27c375.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes10c360.6$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.063441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd94d…365ebacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b8…c148backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…1164backed Yes4c287.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa386…a3aebacked Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes8c276.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6817713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…fb5dbacked Yes7c269.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aeb…1a36backed Yes9c255.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae48…d9b6backed Yes12c250.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes18c248.73$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6817021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59c8…b623backed Yes5c242.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Yes11c234.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes7c234$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.386251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x508c…3449backed Yes23c217.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551a…86b9backed Yes10c200.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes13c191.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes8c187.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick33cpaid-90.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes13c162.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4930319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.