Movies · resolved market
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f3229df4ff53a10b41dcbf8b3d094e8841ad99fdc823a537ac48f0a0ac3b18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Yes | 79c | 2,838$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 60c | 2,610$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.21 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked No | 37c | 1,936$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.31 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 24c | 1,802$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.85 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 1,407$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.32 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,233$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.56 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 3c | 852.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Yes | 12c | 544.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 37c | 378.91$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.11 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 60c | 359$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…ac9bbacked Yes | 7c | 305.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 18c | 291.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.08 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 12c | 288.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 45c | 264.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 11c | 229.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 226.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 180.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…9d16backed Yes | 68c | 147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 144.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 116.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.29 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…04c7backed Yes | 19c | 106.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed Yes | 11c | 106.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 57c | 105.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 33c | 101.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 62c | 98.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 76c | 98.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b8…99dabacked Yes | 61c | 81.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 22c | 60.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 35c | 49.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 41c | 40.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Yes | 53c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4d…5ff1backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m?this page
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 6m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6.5m and 7m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 6.5m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7.5m and 8m?Yes won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 7.5m?No won
- Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.