TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0562…9d66backed Yes23c11,881$2,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,762.756732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes17c5,000$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.3915059.3%89 W · 61 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+24.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No77c4,892$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.5332739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes16c2,824$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.97195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick13cpaid-88.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b24…2e06backed Yes18c1,891$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.53633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes28c1,816$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.239238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes23c1,787$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4039932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes17c1,352$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.335812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90d1…6faebacked No70c1,288$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.21475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes18c1,205$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.5716624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48f…02a2backed Yes2c1,106$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes22c1,093$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.919031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes25c991.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c985.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4414212%17 W · 125 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed No74c896.78$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.9516614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179e…ebe8backed Yes8c842.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.52726.9%5 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x853e…5e10backed Yes1c806.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22230%0 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c752.52$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3348414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No75c748.96$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.992917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed Yes21c715.16$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No74c588.54$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.697252.8%38 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes30c550$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes32c543.28$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+155.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes17c525.9$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes23c429.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.411921.1%4 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No70c385.29$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7119133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No80c369.63$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.252965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes31c319.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes16c310$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes15c262.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7150633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes20c248.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.011,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c67…8b76backed Yes9c227.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.137030%21 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed Yes11c222$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.428536.5%31 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes13c213$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8716040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes18c200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.67414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601650%8 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2430…7473backed Yes17c166.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes9c162$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8417017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca95…cd9cbacked Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes29c132.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2119836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes8c130.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11424.8%2 W · 40 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes30c125.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.288633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a6…321abacked Yes17c110$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.552020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c107.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes30c102.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2723041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5960…7caabacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f72…9a74backed Yes23c91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e92…5f27backed Yes16c89.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes16c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.453145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No71c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.33240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes27c56.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-41.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6255…a005backed Yes38c52.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eee…e108backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Yes42c47.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e87…ef0dbacked No60c33.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.593243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…818bbacked No67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eab…fbb3backed Yes43c24.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No79c21.02$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.413426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x51de…c4d1backed No67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.