Movies · resolved market
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cc508004f3fe1c79ca1ca66cd54d3bff0d60448e5481edd9bf82bfe5d74a1b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 23c | 11,881$2,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,762.75 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 17c | 5,000$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.39 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 77c | 4,892$3,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.53 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 16c | 2,824$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.97 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 18c | 1,891$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 28c | 1,816$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.23 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 23c | 1,787$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,352$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.33 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked No | 70c | 1,288$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 18c | 1,205$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…02a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,106$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,093$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.9 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed Yes | 25c | 991.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 985.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 74c | 896.78$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.95 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 8c | 842.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…5e10backed Yes | 1c | 806.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 752.52$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 75c | 748.96$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 21c | 715.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 74c | 588.54$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 30c | 550$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 32c | 543.28$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 17c | 525.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 23c | 429.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 385.29$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 80c | 369.63$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 31c | 319.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 262.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 248.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 9c | 227.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5b…b598backed Yes | 11c | 222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 13c | 213$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 18c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef72…3c45backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 17c | 166.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 9c | 162$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 29c | 132.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 8c | 130.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 30c | 125.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…321abacked Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 107.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 102.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…7caabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e92…5f27backed Yes | 16c | 89.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 27c | 56.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…a005backed Yes | 38c | 52.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…e108backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…ef0dbacked No | 60c | 33.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…818bbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eab…fbb3backed Yes | 43c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 79c | 21.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $40-44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.