Movies · resolved market
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74ba33ba57835d03e62ebe54f8486ea34e2b256cb2a622275c090a80d22f05a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 5c | 9,551$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.55 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Yes | 1c | 8,402$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 4,334$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 3c | 3,679$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 16c | 2,975$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.63 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,299$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 9c | 2,098$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 17c | 1,731$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 15c | 1,508$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.1 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 3c | 1,488$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 80c | 1,360$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.9 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,249$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…8a55backed Yes | 2c | 1,204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 18c | 1,058$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 30c | 987.72$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.29 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 17c | 776.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.65 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…3a8cbacked Yes | 16c | 634.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 30c | 550$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 16c | 420$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 69c | 336.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 5c | 309.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 289.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 23c | 281.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…8b76backed Yes | 12c | 244.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 83.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 32c | 78.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $40-44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.