Movies · resolved market
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd2662f7bfd46c1cba6e2519eab82c2ec291f3296c889b92899f09d1526f79e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Yes | 1c | 12,961$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 8c | 8,489$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.13 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed Yes | 1c | 8,337$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 2c | 6,392$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,193$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 29c | 4,100$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 1c | 3,815$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,290$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 142 | 12%17 W · 125 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d17…44c2backed Yes | 5c | 2,796$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 3c | 2,212$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2430…7473backed Yes | 1c | 1,785$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 1,638$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 4c | 1,475$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,375$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,308$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 10c | 1,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 74c | 1,009$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.39 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 945.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked Yes | 6c | 850$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 4c | 776.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 599$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 4c | 421$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 4c | 420$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…6a63backed Yes | 4c | 311.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 77c | 164.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 155.67$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 126.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 104.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed No | 72c | 96.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 58c | 79.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 45c | 62.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…c0e2backed Yes | 38c | 57.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 59c | 51.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…a2ecbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 32.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $40-44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.