Movies · resolved market
Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ff3e205a6bab377d348a90b50a87a9cdb24a75a4fcdd4b45ae1fb9f23635c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 71c | 7,274$5,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 76c | 7,260$5,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.46 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 27c | 5,247$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.8 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 50c | 3,053$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.19 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 30c | 1,610$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.99 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 79c | 1,220$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.1 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…a861backed No | 23c | 1,099$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 38c | 897.5$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.49 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 33c | 862$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.7 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 18c | 838.3$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 43c | 788$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 76c | 722$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.94 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 29c | 370.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 333.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.51 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 328.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 65c | 308.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked Yes | 79c | 299.25$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked No | 20c | 264.32$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 45c | 213.49$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 45c | 200.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 180.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Yes | 67c | 150.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 26c | 135.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 41c | 106.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…6faebacked Yes | 60c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…2e06backed Yes | 51c | 68.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 63.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…087abacked No | 25c | 54.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…68a4backed No | 68c | 51.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 76c | 47.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…fe90backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 38c | 28.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $48-52m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $40-44m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross between $44-48m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross less than $40m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' gross more than $52m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.