TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$203,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 365 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0fd…a7dabacked No51c66,551$33,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,696.571080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+61.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked Yes49c28,534$13,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,981.296253.2%33 W · 29 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…d12cbacked Yes53c20,051$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,650742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes48c14,435$6,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,985.1579639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9e…e0cfbacked Yes49c4,714$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,310.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed No51c4,713$2,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.232037.2%119 W · 201 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No43c4,040$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,291.8579650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes47c3,500$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.0540254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No51c3,300$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.0468026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed No55c3,267$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.152330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid+379.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed No55c2,914$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.881546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No70c2,218$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.7337841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96014659.6%87 W · 59 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Yes48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9608750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked No53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.992157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0f…7305backed No50c1,500$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Yes47c1,434$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1140046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes50c1,386$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.834852.1%25 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa075…09fdbacked Yes49c1,232$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.94637%17 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96fb…b2a3backed Yes49c1,100$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes47c1,085$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b21…41fabacked No47c999.98$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9917837.6%67 W · 111 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b2…841cbacked Yes10c922.51$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.252725.9%7 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc745…9499backed Yes50c909.1$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.5511638.8%45 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Yes46c864.05$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed Yes47c851.06$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006838.2%26 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Yes47c850$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes49c831.22$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.37651.3%39 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes51c776.89$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40029044.8%130 W · 160 L-1.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0edb…31bdbacked Yes47c744.65$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf5f…2184backed No54c735.99$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.553644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9c…36e4backed Yes46c679.97$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.781241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7372…3ef5backed No55c677.03$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5371…0734backed Yes51c614.27$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70e1…e9eabacked No54c550$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed No53c525.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.9256158.6%329 W · 232 L+29.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23be…da4fbacked Yes48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503828.9%11 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010445.2%47 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No53c423.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.2760557.5%348 W · 257 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc17…3338backed Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf87…69b2backed Yes47c393.62$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853020%6 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes46c364.58$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7129653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4205…46a7backed Yes47c352.74$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c43…b289backed Yes3c343$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4312149.6%60 W · 61 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+95.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes48c300$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14542755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf6f…3173backed Yes48c299.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a2d…e123backed Yes48c296.49$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.31250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dc…9908backed Yes48c290$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.558937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e04…a9b3backed Yes44c273.37$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes48c250$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Yes47c213.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002941.4%12 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013449.3%66 W · 68 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick40cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4341…6451backed Yes78c210$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.64341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes49c203.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked Yes49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989150.5%46 W · 45 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10437054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74be…4e55backed No49c197$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…cf47backed No51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x484c…017ebacked Yes51c194.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002725.9%7 W · 20 L-5.9wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-39.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xcacf…ca7ebacked Yes51c193.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a0e…4dc6backed No51c188.63$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.636167.2%41 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4890…0968backed Yes51c186.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.015747.4%27 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes46c163.48$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Yes47c157.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7411353.1%60 W · 53 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c149.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0666031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b50…81ddbacked Yes47c136.06$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b32…e681backed Yes47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No64c119.64$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3337652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No50c117.73$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0634251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5c8…6415backed Yes55c112.73$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked No54c108.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7569772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4135…c599backed Yes47c107.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4202…9611backed Yes48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502259.1%13 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x00b6…3809backed Yes49c102.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb337…5589backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473234.4%11 W · 21 L-6.5wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-25.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb701…7cf6backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2622932.3%74 W · 155 L-0.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…1219backed Yes46c99.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ba…e7eebacked Yes47c98.34$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.221315.4%2 W · 11 L-5.7wins-0.44per pick59cpaid-71.4%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x07e6…4e14backed Yes51c98.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e8…0819backed Yes50c98.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes51c86.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0838649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Yes47c85.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019632.7%64 W · 132 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f02…cb80backed No50c84.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa913…f3c6backed No52c83.49$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8239…ddd7backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249027.8%25 W · 65 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f22…a26ebacked Yes50c79.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406045%27 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…a3b9backed Yes51c78.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfe8…fcabbacked Yes78c76.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No53c75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2514450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes51c72.63$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.044949%24 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes38c72.08$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.397035.7%25 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5566…fd27backed No54c70.54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7693…2e41backed No50c66.45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x079a…ff3abacked No55c65.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9848…e696backed Yes46c65.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95c8…9143backed Yes46c64.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304845.8%22 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab5…2bc2backed Yes46c62.71$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.