Premier League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56b985b285f5c20e1e2e50114a41f8c31aa1ca8bfc9c7cf190c0c0a58c26253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x872d…d08cbacked Yes | 71c | 9,699$6,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 24c | 9,175$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.89 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 29c | 7,003$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.29 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.92 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…b656backed No | 74c | 4,605$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,408 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…5726backed Yes | 26c | 4,485$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,301.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f3babacked Yes | 27c | 4,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 73c | 3,442$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.87 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed No | 74c | 2,799$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.21 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b2…841cbacked No | 17c | 2,034$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.37 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 71c | 725.51$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.91 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 74c | 538.16$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 39c | 445.55$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.26 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 37c | 375$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.91 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…a9b3backed Yes | 74c | 313.53$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…6377backed No | 74c | 297.3$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 74c | 242$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 223.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 31c | 210.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 11c | 204.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 24c | 200.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.39 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…cefebacked No | 74c | 193.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 26c | 191.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…822cbacked No | 74c | 175.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed No | 74c | 162.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 25c | 157.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.69 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 73c | 153$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 605 | 57.5%348 W · 257 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 37c | 150.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -12.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 27c | 133.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fa…7bd1backed No | 74c | 122.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…5ed9backed Yes | 27c | 122.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…30c4backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 51cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 30c | 106.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…c769backed Yes | 75c | 100.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…7493backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.5wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7095…b7b9backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 18c | 78.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 23c | 73.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61b…4049backed Yes | 27c | 62.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 54cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6d…f360backed Yes | 52c | 58.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…70f0backed Yes | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c9…2663backed Yes | 28c | 53.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 24c | 53.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…63bfbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +77%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…1775backed Yes | 74c | 40.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…d67bbacked Yes | 65c | 40.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…1851backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e4…2cb4backed No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…befcbacked No | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…3422backed Yes | 73c | 32.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16d…0cb7backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…5ccbbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…18edbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c9…69c3backed No | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…73e3backed Yes | 78c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…9b6dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…a15abacked Yes | 76c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa vs. Brighton end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-30?No won
- Will Brighton win on 2024-12-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.