Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b290fa6c71dc9cf6c70ea739d731081b86e37194c94c36bb4377bcf120b7446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 35c | 914.32$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.51 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 52c | 372.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 63c | 237.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 59c | 224.44$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 65c | 154.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 36c | 112.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 105.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ac…3e1ebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…d4b6backed Yes | 65c | 97.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 31c | 86.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe921…f7e9backed Yes | 41c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 49c | 61.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 46c | 58.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 55.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…693abacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 69c | 49.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…ed56backed No | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…4e0bbacked Yes | 65c | 47.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 56c | 37.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 36c | 30.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…7390backed Yes | 64c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…cd26backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…1b4ebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on April 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.