Movies · resolved market
Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0ba69ab60e942658548b0f9fbf117efce50402d11b88865ebdc5e0c850dad81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 13c | 13,949$1,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.49 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 73c | 3,270$2,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.54 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 34c | 2,870$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.39 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 12c | 1,050$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…389dbacked Yes | 6c | 867.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…cbe6backed Yes | 7c | 846.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 16c | 805.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 19c | 672.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 9c | 653$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 602$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 12c | 520$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 8c | 515.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 499.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 7c | 487.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 7c | 350$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 9c | 325.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 281.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 4c | 275.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed Yes | 12c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 18c | 209.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 9c | 196.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 168.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…44adbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 9c | 141.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 124.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be 90 or higher?this page
- Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 69?No won
- Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 79?No won
- Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80 and 89?Yes won
- Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.