Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2cb2ab6cf68dbb7e90cbae07de1ecb2dca88c52cf530d045d0d10209d5ff0555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 49c | 649.96$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 31c | 559.17$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…19c4backed Yes | 4c | 422$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 52c | 335.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 53c | 327.79$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.27 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 61c | 326.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbd…ed66backed No | 77c | 309.95$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 8c | 218.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 188.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…c132backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 44c | 105.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 50c | 100.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 59c | 95.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 33c | 85.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed No | 60c | 84.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x663f…10afbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…8e48backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 47c | 49.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…0689backed Yes | 62c | 40.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870e…ed56backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…45b5backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 40c | 25.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…3d96backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 57°F or below on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 68°F or higher on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.