Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0e8530204577ff261890cdffd2ba9ed8dbdce85a6b9b479bf56b2ac682ae10d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 6c | 2,502$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 2,001$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.19 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…5efebacked Yes | 3c | 1,762$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…7d21backed Yes | 3c | 1,460$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 1c | 1,065$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 13c | 424$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 15c | 343.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Yes | 11c | 201.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 14c | 118.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March?this page
- Will the US add between 100-150k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March?Yes won
- Will the US add between 50-100k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.