Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 100-150k jobs in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c9a49f44b97ed7b1846712b82ed316af4e18f11a86e749f8e13e59233a1a805
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe762…cd2cbacked No | 61c | 21,191$12,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,264.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…cca0backed Yes | 39c | 21,190$8,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,264.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 967.63$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.37 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 38c | 687.72$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.64 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 29c | 424$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…5efebacked Yes | 38c | 313.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…7d08backed Yes | 40c | 248.31$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed No | 63c | 222.28$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 37c | 216.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…57f2backed Yes | 49c | 204.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 55c | 194.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 187.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a3…67e3backed Yes | 34c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 33c | 141$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d1…0e74backed No | 65c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 44c | 129.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed No | 61c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 54c | 101.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd9…0454backed Yes | 35c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 50c | 100.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd1…972abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes | 41c | 98.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 95.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 80.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 68c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 79.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…4a8ebacked Yes | 30c | 76.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 68.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…c8d1backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 31c | 63.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 57.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 57c | 55.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…f173backed Yes | 42c | 45.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…32d5backed Yes | 42c | 38.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…eb65backed No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…cbefbacked No | 70c | 32.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a8…ea0fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…859bbacked No | 71c | 30.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 65c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e6…b0a3backed No | 66c | 20.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…eca0backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 100-150k jobs in March?this page
- Will the US add between 150-200k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add between 200-250k jobs in March?Yes won
- Will the US add between 50-100k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in March?No won
- Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.