F1 · resolved market
Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeffd463bed06b25c8b65e5afa3301253b7aa44f0194a78323382cabb13949a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e2…1f9abacked Yes | 10c | 2,804$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 247 | 20.6%51 W · 196 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…02debacked Yes | 19c | 2,685$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 7c | 1,839$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,526$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 10c | 1,231$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,164$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 14c | 823.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.37 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 706.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 10c | 650$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 8c | 624.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…3d8abacked Yes | 9c | 579.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…769cbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 11c | 430.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 9c | 406.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 8c | 400$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…7c3dbacked Yes | 13c | 388.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 7c | 353$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 11c | 352.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…e558backed Yes | 13c | 285.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…8929backed Yes | 9c | 258.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 8c | 237.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x603e…c256backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…6fadbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 9c | 124.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…fb1bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…c3b5backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1f7cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…62f5backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…f220backed Yes | 13c | 78.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.