F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26020883e34bf8763904e23469d76153408cdd232621325a7236c5a59877a0ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 16c | 2,702$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.2 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 15c | 1,159$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.8 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 999.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 127 | 23.6%30 W · 97 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 886.84$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.63 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aef…f4afbacked Yes | 7c | 872.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 697.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 13c | 535.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 160 | 22.5%36 W · 124 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Yes | 22c | 490.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…07abbacked Yes | 19c | 373.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…769cbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…e466backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…02debacked Yes | 19c | 190.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 18c | 189.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…7003backed Yes | 7c | 144.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 19c | 129.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651d…c3b5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…e965backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a009backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 20c | 77.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb2…634dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +78%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes | 19c | 52.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a5…ff5dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…e558backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97a4…a1c0backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed No | 80c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.