Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4733f61fa426aa976500888368f4219d8e5dfdfcb2d2f6a3c637d02bcf0f5e42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda47…f40abacked Yes | 40c | 2,354$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked No | 60c | 1,700$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 69c | 506.87$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.89 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 356.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.03 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 249.96$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed No | 58c | 239.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 71c | 237$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.64 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 17c | 161.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 45c | 142.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 29c | 130$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 30c | 114.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 33c | 107.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 105.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…8686backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 62c | 95.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 88.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 67c | 70$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c313backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 42c | 42.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3de3backed Yes | 28c | 36.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70a…0eedbacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed No | 65c | 25.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed No | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will Donald Trump be shown 12 or more times at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 9-11 times at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.