Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5088d6f1fc3435ba0fada7dc3a420bd7c0f3f3d2ffa55f1ebcb78110527e7b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 24c | 201$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf577…972ebacked Yes | 19c | 160.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed No | 61c | 94.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…9d66backed Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 37c | 55.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 36c | 41.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 67c | 40.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d597backed No | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…e0fcbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…c05cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 55c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…5b36backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…c04bbacked No | 62c | 23.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 55c | 20.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…c313backed No | 69c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump be shown 3-5 times at the Super Bowl?this page
- Will Donald Trump be shown 0-2 times at the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 12 or more times at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 6-8 times at the Super Bowl?No won
- Will Donald Trump be shown 9-11 times at the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.