Us Politics · resolved market
Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e5e25ab31e0f1d1e06ba0f67a01c8b550344ef86aa7192b9bbf4e7939cf0293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 74c | 4,266$3,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 4c | 4,000$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 2,139$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.49 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 8c | 1,600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 11c | 1,300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 5c | 1,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 10c | 1,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 9c | 1,054$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +346.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 11c | 1,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…0e0cbacked No | 10c | 845$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 46c | 333$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 10c | 254.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 52c | 220.48$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…e6a6backed No | 19c | 175.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…462dbacked No | 44c | 167.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…4976backed No | 39c | 162.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…399abacked No | 46c | 154.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 38c | 146.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…1e7cbacked Yes | 25c | 131.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 48c | 123.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…cb75backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…a430backed No | 44c | 80.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 49c | 61.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…1e37backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 50c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 52c | 36.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…603fbacked Yes | 52c | 36.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 48c | 30.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed No | 49c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52c1…1084backed No | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…1b4ebacked No | 46c | 21.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Yes | 51c | 21.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4632…193abacked Yes | 52c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.