World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d028e3635291a9b7bdd0757427a79b359b1269500a9b67bcbc6dc924939b84f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 32c | 955.93$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.83 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…e5e4backed Yes | 34c | 869.77$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 500$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 13c | 384.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 380$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 349.98$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.39 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 61c | 341.45$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 56c | 317$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 38c | 250.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 244.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 230$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 57c | 188.36$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 185$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbf…c206backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…a40bbacked Yes | 59c | 169.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 163.08$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 66c | 163$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 159.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 146$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 48c | 144.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 59c | 141.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 138$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…b6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 57c | 95.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…937bbacked Yes | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 61c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…f1dfbacked Yes | 29c | 86.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked Yes | 42c | 73.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 44c | 69.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 57c | 58.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 64c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 47c | 53.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78e9…eac3backed No | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 47.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…e1ddbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 45.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…edb6backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 66c | 39.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3691…29e3backed Yes | 56c | 36.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…8725backed No | 66c | 31.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 31.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…e1ccbacked Yes | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…1475backed No | 60c | 30.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked No | 61c | 29.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcea3…0bc8backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…35aebacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…8d9fbacked No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cb…1499backed Yes | 56c | 25.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…2276backed No | 57c | 20.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…b67bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7e…4800backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad5…e33fbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 72c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.