World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1efbffbd0039a9a0de5c7616bb6097724f5f31fcac2bcf68829241710a4e30fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,177$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.11 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 550.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.02 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 47c | 397.17$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 380$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.84 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed No | 56c | 329.5$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 24c | 316.44$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 78c | 269.68$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 268.84$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 40c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed Yes | 42c | 240.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 235$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 220.52$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.67 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 29c | 220$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 12c | 207$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 8c | 190.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 67c | 175$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 58c | 171.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 8c | 170$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 59c | 162.31$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 146$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 122.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 116$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked No | 9c | 114.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 55c | 110.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…937bbacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 54c | 95.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 78c | 76.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…eb77backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 61.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 61.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 54.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 55c | 53.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6029…968ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…e5d8backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 60c | 38.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 60c | 34.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 46c | 32.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 30.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…edb6backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…eff4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ef…68a0backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 60c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 60c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 60c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 18.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?this page
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.