TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Cindy Holscher win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2779…239abacked No10c10,532$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.94128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes72c2,709$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.027448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No23c1,928$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.4914356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No19c1,687$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.9914729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No7c1,012$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.12941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No27c954.64$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.236826.5%18 W · 50 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No10c897.72$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.778042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No24c815.05$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5924831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes74c495.76$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5222848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No20c445.92$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6733421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes25c423.92$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2416544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No11c423.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.754032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No23c396.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9510034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes38c351.67$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.546322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed No35c346.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.214136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No5c344$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.584143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…f1dbbacked Yes61c320.93$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.72825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No19c320.29$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7713143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No68c315$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5811522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No26c310$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.212231.1%38 W · 84 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes60c307.36$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.624433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No14c300$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No28c278.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.518234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes70c245.01$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8513919.4%27 W · 112 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed No58c242.59$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.6910740.2%43 W · 64 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+52.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No22c227.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.143630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6301…3074backed Yes37c221.32$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes75c210.13$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.531947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No52c206.81$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5466914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes34c204.67$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.1220542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No37c200$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes38c199.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.992142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No8c199.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+99.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes54c176.03$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8122833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No11c171.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.146311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes37c159.21$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5815232.9%50 W · 102 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes75c155$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.753661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.9610361.2%63 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No14c137.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No16c134.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5515431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c104.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1449411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.817140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645850%29 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc50c…3017backed No25c99.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc0fc…469dbacked Yes75c96$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes20c93.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0519643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e42…a043backed No26c91.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes76c88.23$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.183773%27 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes26c87.1$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4818310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1693…5d20backed Yes69c78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.18933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.28per pick62cpaid-31.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes27c72.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.817524%18 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b62…0113backed No34c70.59$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.13438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes78c62.85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7313546.7%63 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c62.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4734129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No26c60.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7212049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed96…d6edbacked Yes76c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.71782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No18c59.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.575754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes67c55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.941560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes27c52.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.086221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3116020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked No25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+155.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.54546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes24c48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No72c45.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.723860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ac…40d9backed No23c45.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.354562.2%28 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No76c41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1812150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No62c40.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5705…4652backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ccf…99ecbacked No32c36.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79010%9 W · 81 L-20.0wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-81.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1073…4811backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No73c24.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.933070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No79c19.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed No69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.342055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1cd…4a46backed Yes73c17.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c13…bceebacked No78c13.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.