Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd837e5deb894a485d1c4558e81c31ea2192205c9a15c114a06f69f558db2499e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 5c | 12,868$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 6c | 4,578$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 6c | 4,154$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.79 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,936$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,930$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…2473backed Yes | 3c | 3,462$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 3c | 3,161$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Yes | 10c | 2,825$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,369$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 10c | 1,788$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.81 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,633$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff9…4e59backed Yes | 4c | 1,393$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,282$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…90e1backed Yes | 8c | 1,269$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…75eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,079$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…610bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,055$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,018$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…91b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 931.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 914.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 5c | 801$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 12c | 658.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5273…69f5backed Yes | 8c | 511.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 8c | 508.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…19e4backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…4fd9backed Yes | 5c | 460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf6…208fbacked Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 388$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 8c | 336.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…36bbbacked Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe051…73edbacked Yes | 8c | 241.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…2bf9backed Yes | 8c | 238.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 235.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bce…9fbfbacked Yes | 8c | 165.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…08fabacked Yes | 8c | 152.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 8c | 127.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…37b7backed Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5607…fd15backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.