Tweets · resolved market
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea8d63636467005bca496fcd11246240a88398376361c3022597bafa75c090d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 17c | 1,410$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +9.2wins | +0.37per pick | 11cpaid | +624.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 998$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 46c | 579$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 52c | 283$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 45c | 269.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 58c | 218.87$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…0b12backed No | 57c | 175.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 38c | 97.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d56…191cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fa…ad3cbacked No | 62c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.