AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d9dd15c8bf7ee1231e168d50ee1ce5e9271722d7f321765f80ab0ca0d27b56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 11,203$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.42 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,997$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,586$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,043$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 14c | 736.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 3c | 581.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 3c | 426.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…fc55backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 14c | 275.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 4c | 251.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…0f34backed Yes | 9c | 227.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 211.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 196.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 18c | 196$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 14c | 132$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 101.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 16c | 70.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…16d1backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?Yes won
- Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Meta have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the second best AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.