Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda652390cbbf3f7dc6fe0c2aaac6e5d5a6b1c319e2b9704f3a961aebb0727501
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6294…33f3backed No | 79c | 5,553$4,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.41 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 8c | 4,011$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.67 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 22c | 2,800$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…8b82backed Yes | 21c | 2,383$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 21c | 2,355$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.89 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed No | 80c | 2,287$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.58 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,738$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…9df9backed Yes | 15c | 1,345$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,338$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Yes | 18c | 1,138$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 822.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 13c | 785.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…a682backed No | 71c | 705.34$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 599.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 3c | 567$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…b08fbacked Yes | 29c | 532.87$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…ce44backed Yes | 24c | 519.1$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 9c | 473$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 13c | 392.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467b…e654backed Yes | 13c | 367.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 68c | 366.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…bb8dbacked Yes | 14c | 353.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 312.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945d…b7b2backed Yes | 4c | 297.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…6c58backed Yes | 11c | 213.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…965bbacked Yes | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 68c | 162.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9b…fababacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82be…89eebacked Yes | 18c | 128.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 22c | 118.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Yes | 12c | 100.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 70c | 95.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…de2fbacked Yes | 16c | 71.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…1c87backed Yes | 36c | 69.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…722abacked Yes | 18c | 62.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…89c7backed Yes | 29c | 36.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…487abacked No | 72c | 36.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…db1cbacked Yes | 37c | 36.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7b…f9a1backed No | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…3655backed No | 71c | 21.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 72c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.