Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde7e667a0d97a83e88823a18f5222926d188ff2a72c2c00c564cf2bb4f955392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked Yes | 35c | 8,537$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,506.42 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 41c | 3,340$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.38 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 42c | 3,272$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.09 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…3cecbacked Yes | 38c | 1,329$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…e7d1backed No | 27c | 1,013$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 11c | 850.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.31 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…7d82backed No | 40c | 625.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…a7d3backed No | 68c | 600$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…fc45backed No | 56c | 600$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2beb…0a24backed Yes | 53c | 553.28$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 31c | 403.44$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 54c | 371$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.64 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 63c | 359.77$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…dff1backed Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 84 | 70.2%59 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 43c | 232.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 70c | 222.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 45c | 186.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 51c | 149.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…db3fbacked Yes | 79c | 134$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1d…db1cbacked Yes | 61c | 126.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8eafbacked Yes | 70c | 126.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Yes | 12c | 100.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…8c26backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Yes | 63c | 95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5379…a031backed Yes | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…4acfbacked Yes | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe772…9084backed No | 63c | 62.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…cf21backed Yes | 52c | 55.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked Yes | 46c | 53.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 48.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 57c | 44.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd707…d83dbacked Yes | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…cd1bbacked Yes | 40c | 34.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…eee3backed No | 33c | 33.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…9e02backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…8a65backed No | 52c | 23.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…a4e6backed Yes | 60c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…2bf1backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.