Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5adee0107a3c8d3901faa5ef1c3db5d83860f0704a96ed06f8c00d9cf15f1645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 7c | 13,331$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.63 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…e79fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,454$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,223$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 5c | 5,101$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.94 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0921…263ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,080$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.39 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…f848backed Yes | 1c | 3,509$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 2c | 2,217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…01f1backed Yes | 10c | 2,159$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 6c | 1,817$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,620$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,453$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 143 | 1.4%2 W · 141 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,383$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…b404backed Yes | 9c | 1,269$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…bb8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,030$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…8232backed Yes | 6c | 1,007$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 9c | 923.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…8b82backed Yes | 12c | 836.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 6c | 811.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 611.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7c…3618backed Yes | 3c | 607.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 6c | 498.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 3c | 301.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 8c | 243.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…a1fcbacked Yes | 14c | 142.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x684d…efc7backed Yes | 9c | 141.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…971ebacked Yes | 22c | 100.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 1-7?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,900 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 1-7?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 1-7?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 1-7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.