Middle East · resolved market
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac3953af0ba14f9418c734ddf0fe31a0ca049fa7c8fe1537f2149661321d56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 6c | 4,413$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.8 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 55c | 1,045$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.43 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…1a05backed Yes | 2c | 1,037$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 50c | 729.87$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.12 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 7c | 661.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 3c | 651.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f36…89cabacked Yes | 21c | 616.84$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 602.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 49c | 399.41$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.71 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 6c | 357.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 340.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 328.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 51c | 302.17$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 216.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 175.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 44c | 170.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0aa…93cabacked No | 73c | 161.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…4df4backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 53c | 148.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 13c | 144.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 48c | 139.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 120.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…0838backed No | 70c | 112.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 37c | 100.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ace…f3dabacked Yes | 39c | 85.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 32c | 80.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 79.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 71.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…4883backed Yes | 37c | 69.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked No | 57c | 69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked No | 51c | 60.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…9b51backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 46c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 57c | 41.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 48c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…c04fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 41c | 39.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…4668backed No | 76c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…9963backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…f6f6backed No | 77c | 27.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 43c | 25.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…4da6backed Yes | 50c | 25.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53d5…96cabacked No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…5e7cbacked No | 60c | 23.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 71c | 22.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…9090backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.