UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Park
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x521d26ad96d405bce5ead4b3b51b26c829ec25edf608772efc50a66086c7817e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Parkof Naurdiev, Park
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Park | 63c | 20,000$12,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d6…d716backed Naurdiev | 39c | 17,941$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e7…c7c7backed Naurdiev | 38c | 11,911$4,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,467.04 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Park | 58c | 9,204$5,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,820.69 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Naurdiev | 37c | 8,016$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.96 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Park | 62c | 3,931$2,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.81 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Naurdiev | 18c | 2,431$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.2 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Park | 61c | 2,225$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.58 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Naurdiev | 39c | 2,222$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.58 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Park | 73c | 1,857$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.67 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Park | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.3 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Naurdiev | 28c | 1,357$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.25 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Park | 62c | 1,324$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Park | 61c | 1,285$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Naurdiev | 39c | 1,259$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.79 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Park | 66c | 1,164$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.03 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Park | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Naurdiev | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Naurdiev | 35c | 881.97$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.87 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Naurdiev | 39c | 771.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Park | 65c | 755.91$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.7 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Naurdiev | 38c | 657.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Park | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Park | 63c | 412.69$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…68febacked Park | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Park | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Naurdiev | 39c | 277.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Naurdiev | 38c | 263$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Naurdiev | 18c | 251.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Park | 63c | 239.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Naurdiev | 35c | 239.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa812…9c13backed Naurdiev | 39c | 230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Naurdiev | 37c | 204.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Park | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Park | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Naurdiev | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Naurdiev | 57c | 198.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Park | 64c | 184.66$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Park | 62c | 180.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Park | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Park | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Park | 64c | 116.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Park | 59c | 100.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Naurdiev | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…23ddbacked Park | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Park | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Park | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb75b…c90ebacked Park | 64c | 90$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +198.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Park | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Naurdiev | 38c | 78.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Park | 64c | 78.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Naurdiev | 43c | 69.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Naurdiev | 36c | 54.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Park | 64c | 53.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Naurdiev | 36c | 52.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Naurdiev | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Park | 77c | 49.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Naurdiev | 37c | 48.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…3414backed Park | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…08c7backed Park | 64c | 41.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Naurdiev | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…293dbacked Park | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…56c4backed Park | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Naurdiev | 40c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked Park | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…e423backed Park | 64c | 20.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…7b4ebacked Park | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…843abacked Park | 63c | 16.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Park | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Parkthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdelwahab vs. UsmanUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Alekseeva vs. SygułaSyguła won
- UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. KunievBlaydes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. BahamondesFiziev won
- UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Rountree Jr. won
- UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. ElliottKo won
- UFC Fight Night: Musayev vs. OrolbaiOrolbai won
- UFC Fight Night: Naimov vs. GradNaimov won
- UFC Fight Night: Sadykhov vs. MottaSadykhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulanbekov vs. MaksumUlanbekov won
- UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. MullinsZhelezniakova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.