TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. Mullins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Zhelezniakovaof Zhelezniakova, Mullins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,628

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Zhelezniakova31c22,660$6,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,735.2210447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Mullins69c16,752$11,558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,557.6622259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mullins52c5,744$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,960.0810443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Zhelezniakova52c4,994$2,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.946051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Mullins41c3,146$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.892330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Mullins31c1,254$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.6928043.2%121 W · 159 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Zhelezniakova51c1,050$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5148751.7%45 W · 42 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mullins56c1,010$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.3153956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mullins70c1,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mullins69c953.79$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.8518453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Mullins70c700$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4902540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Zhelezniakova30c674.03$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.9319544.6%87 W · 108 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Mullins70c571.43$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mullins69c527$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6318560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Zhelezniakova30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3507237.5%27 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Mullins70c450$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31433948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Mullins69c433.93$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2942042.6%179 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Zhelezniakova43c410.52$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Mullins69c400$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27612159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Zhelezniakova60c350$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ee4…80f2backed Mullins72c349.22$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506555.4%36 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Mullins64c224$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2422342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Zhelezniakova33c213$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7723850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Zhelezniakova63c159.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0413450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Mullins69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d4f…9e0dbacked Mullins39c128.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a7…8f05backed Mullins65c123.45$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805839.7%23 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Mullins69c120$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.848749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x982b…983cbacked Zhelezniakova58c101$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.52454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Mullins63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2218141.4%75 W · 106 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked Zhelezniakova28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Mullins70c90$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6322753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Zhelezniakova30c85.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6033253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x653c…a02abacked Zhelezniakova32c84.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.381656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Mullins69c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.49062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd9a…c3a8backed Zhelezniakova53c51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.15560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32dc…cac5backed Mullins69c50.72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d73…3414backed Mullins69c43.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Mullins41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42962.1%18 W · 11 L+6.5wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+62.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Mullins40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.834445.5%20 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab43…f7b3backed Mullins69c33.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2316058.8%94 W · 66 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4790…2dd7backed Zhelezniakova32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.254240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeed4…e8adbacked Zhelezniakova32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+114.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca16…06dcbacked Mullins70c31.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Mullins70c23.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.365648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.