UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. Mullins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67d8c1ad9ac9c854ed431aab236d76a26c68b5dd3b9f90da4ed27a9010fd71df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zhelezniakovaof Zhelezniakova, Mullins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Zhelezniakova | 31c | 22,660$6,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,735.22 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Mullins | 69c | 16,752$11,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,557.66 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mullins | 52c | 5,744$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960.08 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Zhelezniakova | 52c | 4,994$2,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.94 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mullins | 41c | 3,146$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Mullins | 31c | 1,254$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.69 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Zhelezniakova | 51c | 1,050$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mullins | 56c | 1,010$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.31 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mullins | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mullins | 69c | 953.79$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.85 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Mullins | 70c | 700$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Zhelezniakova | 30c | 674.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.93 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Mullins | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Mullins | 69c | 527$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.63 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Zhelezniakova | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mullins | 70c | 450$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Mullins | 69c | 433.93$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Zhelezniakova | 43c | 410.52$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Mullins | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Zhelezniakova | 60c | 350$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.5 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Mullins | 72c | 349.22$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Mullins | 64c | 224$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Zhelezniakova | 33c | 213$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.77 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Zhelezniakova | 63c | 159.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Mullins | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…9e0dbacked Mullins | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Mullins | 65c | 123.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Mullins | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Zhelezniakova | 58c | 101$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Mullins | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Zhelezniakova | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Mullins | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Zhelezniakova | 30c | 85.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…a02abacked Zhelezniakova | 32c | 84.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mullins | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…c3a8backed Zhelezniakova | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32dc…cac5backed Mullins | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…3414backed Mullins | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Mullins | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Mullins | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f7b3backed Mullins | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Zhelezniakova | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…e8adbacked Zhelezniakova | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…06dcbacked Mullins | 70c | 31.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Mullins | 70c | 23.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. Mullinsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdelwahab vs. UsmanUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Alekseeva vs. SygułaSyguła won
- UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. KunievBlaydes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. BahamondesFiziev won
- UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Rountree Jr. won
- UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. ElliottKo won
- UFC Fight Night: Musayev vs. OrolbaiOrolbai won
- UFC Fight Night: Naimov vs. GradNaimov won
- UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. ParkPark won
- UFC Fight Night: Sadykhov vs. MottaSadykhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulanbekov vs. MaksumUlanbekov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.