UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Naimov vs. Grad
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e52a6cc47a7f929d22db519e9da42c1351d58e5f4310ae810dbb02b313da88f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naimovof Naimov, Grad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Naimov | 63c | 9,064$5,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.71 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Grad | 35c | 4,731$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.38 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Grad | 42c | 4,000$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Naimov | 70c | 3,131$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.24 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Grad | 30c | 3,049$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.24 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Naimov | 64c | 3,035$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.04 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Grad | 28c | 3,000$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.01 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Naimov | 71c | 2,520$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.98 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Grad | 28c | 2,253$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.39 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Naimov | 77c | 1,080$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.53 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Naimov | 74c | 1,012$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.14 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Grad | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Naimov | 76c | 823.22$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.41 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Naimov | 65c | 796.42$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.96 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ac…a667backed Naimov | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Naimov | 69c | 701.61$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Grad | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Naimov | 70c | 604.98$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Naimov | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Naimov | 69c | 527$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.37 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Grad | 35c | 511.05$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.54 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Grad | 30c | 499.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Grad | 31c | 445.16$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Grad | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Grad | 27c | 400$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Grad | 30c | 396.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Grad | 29c | 382.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Naimov | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Grad | 30c | 334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…62b8backed Grad | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…c0dfbacked Grad | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…f89bbacked Grad | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Grad | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Grad | 30c | 250.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Naimov | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Naimov | 70c | 225$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Grad | 32c | 200$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Grad | 32c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Grad | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Grad | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Naimov | 71c | 195$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grad | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Grad | 39c | 149.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Naimov | 70c | 148$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed Naimov | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Naimov | 70c | 143.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Naimov | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…febebacked Naimov | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Grad | 29c | 123$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Naimov | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Naimov | 71c | 106.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…3414backed Grad | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Naimov | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 168 | 51.8%87 W · 81 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Naimov | 68c | 76.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Naimov | 73c | 69.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Naimov | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…08c7backed Naimov | 73c | 47.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x982b…983cbacked Naimov | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked Naimov | 66c | 41.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Naimov | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Grad | 30c | 34.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Naimov | 55c | 32.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Naimov | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7470…56c4backed Naimov | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed Naimov | 67c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Naimov vs. Gradthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdelwahab vs. UsmanUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Alekseeva vs. SygułaSyguła won
- UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. KunievBlaydes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. BahamondesFiziev won
- UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Rountree Jr. won
- UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. ElliottKo won
- UFC Fight Night: Musayev vs. OrolbaiOrolbai won
- UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. ParkPark won
- UFC Fight Night: Sadykhov vs. MottaSadykhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulanbekov vs. MaksumUlanbekov won
- UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. MullinsZhelezniakova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.