UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Musayev vs. Orolbai
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b860c3fa3e0358f2407cee4ec91e53ceaef9da4dd5680f23a650d745236b9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orolbaiof Musayev, Orolbai
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Musayev | 36c | 9,615$3,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,508.53 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…6eaebacked Orolbai | 64c | 4,975$3,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Orolbai | 64c | 3,468$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.34 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Musayev | 36c | 2,461$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.07 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Orolbai | 63c | 2,150$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.59 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Musayev | 29c | 1,575$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.93 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Orolbai | 63c | 1,398$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.41 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Musayev | 39c | 1,126$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.55 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musayev | 38c | 1,043$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Musayev | 39c | 1,000$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.22 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Musayev | 38c | 875.65$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.73 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Orolbai | 64c | 735.47$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.4 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Orolbai | 61c | 654.1$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Orolbai | 63c | 605.25$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.94 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…febebacked Musayev | 39c | 583.33$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Musayev | 40c | 561.82$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 122 | 62.3%76 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Musayev | 40c | 555.52$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.21 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Orolbai | 61c | 500$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Orolbai | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6623…68febacked Orolbai | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Orolbai | 64c | 406.25$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…c702backed Orolbai | 62c | 346.63$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Musayev | 40c | 304$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Orolbai | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Orolbai | 63c | 286.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Orolbai | 64c | 275.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.89 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Musayev | 4c | 271.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Musayev | 38c | 255.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.49 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Orolbai | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…6598backed Orolbai | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Musayev | 37c | 243.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c54…82babacked Orolbai | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Orolbai | 63c | 227.59$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Musayev | 37c | 225.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Orolbai | 60c | 205.48$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Musayev | 40c | 202.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Orolbai | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Orolbai | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Orolbai | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Orolbai | 62c | 194$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Orolbai | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Orolbai | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…abb3backed Orolbai | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Musayev | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Orolbai | 59c | 134.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Orolbai | 63c | 133.03$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Orolbai | 61c | 132.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Orolbai | 67c | 129.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Musayev | 30c | 127.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Orolbai | 62c | 125.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Musayev | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…7972backed Orolbai | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Orolbai | 62c | 115$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Orolbai | 62c | 81.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Orolbai | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…aafdbacked Musayev | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Orolbai | 76c | 74.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Orolbai | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Orolbai | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Orolbai | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…6988backed Musayev | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…5979backed Musayev | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…3414backed Orolbai | 62c | 48.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d7…7ad5backed Orolbai | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Musayev | 37c | 35.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Orolbai | 64c | 32.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…66a7backed Orolbai | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…5ac2backed Orolbai | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +119%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…87ebbacked Orolbai | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e5…dd0fbacked Musayev | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Orolbai | 64c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…c3a8backed Orolbai | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94b…a910backed Orolbai | 63c | 20.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…e423backed Orolbai | 64c | 20.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Orolbai | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Musayev vs. Orolbaithis page
- UFC Fight Night: Abdelwahab vs. UsmanUsman won
- UFC Fight Night: Alekseeva vs. SygułaSyguła won
- UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. KunievBlaydes won
- UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. BahamondesFiziev won
- UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Rountree Jr. won
- UFC Fight Night: Ko vs. ElliottKo won
- UFC Fight Night: Naimov vs. GradNaimov won
- UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. ParkPark won
- UFC Fight Night: Sadykhov vs. MottaSadykhov won
- UFC Fight Night: Ulanbekov vs. MaksumUlanbekov won
- UFC Fight Night: Zhelezniakova vs. MullinsZhelezniakova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.