Boxing · resolved market
Boxing – Salt Papi vs. Tony Ferguson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91fe8408c4f327f75ddd76173820f397139cc6a1baa416b09ceb6aa7e7f5bca8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fergusonof Salt Papi, Ferguson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Ferguson | 71c | 7,927$5,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.46 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…68acbacked Salt Papi | 72c | 3,709$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Ferguson | 51c | 3,213$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,577.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Salt Papi | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Salt Papi | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Salt Papi | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Salt Papi | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Salt Papi | 78c | 1,746$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.83 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…6136backed Ferguson | 29c | 680.17$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…865dbacked Salt Papi | 78c | 586.95$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Ferguson | 28c | 539.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Ferguson | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…1211backed Ferguson | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c1…d67bbacked Ferguson | 24c | 283.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Salt Papi | 71c | 266.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Ferguson | 35c | 228.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Salt Papi | 40c | 173.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Salt Papi | 61c | 164.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Salt Papi | 77c | 155.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Ferguson | 31c | 123.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Salt Papi | 79c | 108.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Ferguson | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…953dbacked Salt Papi | 68c | 100.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Ferguson | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Ferguson | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…538abacked Salt Papi | 77c | 96.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…cb2abacked Ferguson | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Ferguson | 23c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +327.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Salt Papi | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…649abacked Salt Papi | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…c600backed Salt Papi | 79c | 54.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Ferguson | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Ferguson | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…010dbacked Salt Papi | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +140.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…e423backed Salt Papi | 77c | 24.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Salt Papi | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed Salt Papi | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Salt Papi | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.