NBA · resolved market
Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0691e0a7c19a1c5f051064c66cd6e9249b088725ff6af65c48184dd44828c5ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…0058backed Yes | 49c | 32,244$15,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,444.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…ee01backed No | 51c | 32,244$16,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,444.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 30c | 4,483$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.47 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 47c | 1,704$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.03 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,495$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.26 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 1,138$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.31 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 53c | 577.6$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.47 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 26c | 518.7$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.63 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…2a77backed Yes | 53c | 376.4$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…62edbacked No | 49c | 366.9$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 51c | 328.58$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed Yes | 52c | 145.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 27c | 127$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…8431backed Yes | 54c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked No | 76c | 92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 48c | 82.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…280bbacked No | 48c | 56.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 54.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab91…7ba7backed No | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…ea7fbacked No | 49c | 34.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdb…82d5backed Yes | 53c | 32.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d4…2864backed Yes | 53c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda13…81c9backed No | 49c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 23.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1f…cb6abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…8c89backed No | 67c | 15.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-3?this page
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-0?No won
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-1?No won
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-2?No won
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-3?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-0?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-1?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.