NBA · resolved market
Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04922fb95937174dba20d11e8f6afa72fb4f0fbd118c3303d3ca9876de7f4df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c7c…ead5backed Yes | 35c | 29,476$10,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,316.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…13e9backed No | 65c | 29,476$19,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,316.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 55c | 4,630$2,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.1 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 47c | 3,347$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.83 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 25c | 2,866$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 35c | 1,866$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.03 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 77c | 1,288$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.68 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed No | 52c | 494.41$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 51c | 480$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 56c | 353.59$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x610d…188bbacked Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 28%52 W · 134 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…36f5backed Yes | 24c | 144.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 53c | 116$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 52c | 110$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 229 | 39.7%91 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-3?this page
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-0?No won
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-1?No won
- Will the Clippers beat the Nuggets 4-2?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-0?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-1?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-2?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Clippers 4-3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.