TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Kill Bill’ by SZA win Record of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes23c3,535$810 inLost-$809.98140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes24c2,249$529 inLost-$529.053641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed Yes18c1,079$190 inLost-$190.271533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes21c858.93$180 inLost-$180.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e9…8b44backed Yes21c750.71$158 inLost-$157.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1cd8backed Yes23c650$150 inLost-$149.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c5…923dbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost-$50229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes21c221.96$47 inLost-$46.611414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-71.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4302…b736backed No79c23.16$18 inWon+$4.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.