TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

GRAMMYs 2024: Will ‘Flowers’ by Miley Cyrus win Record of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,801 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes31c4,491$1,411 inWon+$3,080.483641.7%15 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No68c2,099$1,421 inLost-$1,421.4750%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed Yes30c1,457$439 inWon+$1,018.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17d5…95a6backed Yes32c927.27$300 inWon+$627.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+176.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No70c818.61$575 inLost-$575.14748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes30c236.87$70 inWon+$166.582536%9 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Yes29c200$58 inWon+$1422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+144.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0c6…2902backed Yes33c60.79$20 inWon+$40.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No67c50$34 inLost-$33.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.