TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,322
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,322 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x900d…2961backed Yes72c3,813$2,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes77c3,001$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.081546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes69c2,847$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No32c2,429$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.124930.6%15 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No24c2,407$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.867844.9%35 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes68c1,974$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.993228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Yes68c1,800$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No30c1,751$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.4430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6442…2163backed Yes72c1,537$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes70c1,375$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a1a…1011backed Yes79c994.83$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick71cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Yes68c950$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No30c943.5$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.222030%6 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No32c923$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.361643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes72c918.01$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No21c867$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.82646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb078…656cbacked Yes72c822.06$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes78c771.01$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.01728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-62.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No35c687.41$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1914938.9%58 W · 91 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No23c654.02$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.184615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a2c…2d47backed No32c622.86$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2281…c6c4backed Yes67c594.34$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f77…a9a9backed No25c486$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick30cpaid+154.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No28c479.9$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.0716250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes68c406.94$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.22580%4 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick34cpaid+222.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes69c380.94$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.111650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+59.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes68c367$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.441250%6 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes73c289.46$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81560%9 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No7c245.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.171963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+52.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No30c243$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.96746.3%31 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc226…f1dbbacked No34c242.54$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c239.11$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6622640.3%91 W · 135 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x855a…6f7bbacked Yes62c224.11$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.341361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick35cpaid+145.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes68c220.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.59728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No18c196$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.28850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No34c190.87$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid+43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes68c180$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.91936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+104%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed Yes64c179.42$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…a224backed No26c154$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked Yes70c150.17$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.18955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f9…0021backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.06333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf801…e94fbacked Yes76c145$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ad…272abacked Yes74c139$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb3…ad95backed Yes65c134.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…ad17backed Yes75c133.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.512020%4 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-72%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0d95…67a7backed Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed No27c131$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.37650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+127%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes77c130.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddc…7b90backed Yes78c129.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf806…2d90backed Yes79c126.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea46…0200backed Yes69c126.09$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a94…afecbacked No27c126$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f1c…e74cbacked Yes73c126$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc7…011fbacked Yes66c124.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No30c110$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.66943.5%30 W · 39 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ae…8e54backed No31c104$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781e…f17abacked Yes66c103$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c5…ba67backed Yes72c102.53$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes65c102$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.76642.4%28 W · 38 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd97…f3d9backed No34c100.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e3c…7efbbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes70c99.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8524732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd28…024ebacked No34c98.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…d3bbbacked No34c97.44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c43…963dbacked No35c96.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0713…ba40backed Yes68c93.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ccd…d5b0backed No34c91.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes58c91.22$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.332951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4267…1a52backed No34c91.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff1f…3022backed No34c90.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…57fabacked Yes70c90$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948e…7189backed No34c88.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc3…b983backed No34c86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfe…48e1backed Yes66c85.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7af9…a5b6backed No34c81.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed Yes67c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22a…8936backed No34c77.35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes71c77.27$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No30c75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.54748.9%23 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf081…394dbacked Yes66c74$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c4c…3486backed No36c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.250%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13d5…5945backed Yes66c69.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0007…434ebacked Yes72c69.45$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b6…39fbbacked No27c69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa3…e747backed Yes73c69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…a128backed Yes66c68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ca…54b2backed Yes74c66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f75…df23backed No26c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe3…a995backed No27c65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8652…78a6backed Yes74c63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+128.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x255b…292abacked No26c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes67c62.49$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.731855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16a…a100backed Yes73c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ea…c0f1backed No27c59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb2…7b06backed No33c58.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd738…9a01backed Yes73c53$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked Yes67c50.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.61560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.