Music · resolved market
Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8aa5fc4434b3e07052ae4e9c46a8044945cad955a97795b58a7ac449ff461be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Yes | 24c | 10,704$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,542.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 24c | 4,553$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.82 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 78c | 3,398$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 78c | 3,023$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.98 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 23c | 2,764$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 72c | 1,941$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.83 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,881$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 24c | 1,600$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 1,545$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 30c | 1,429$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 1,293$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.62 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 78c | 1,234$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 71c | 1,231$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 29c | 996.56$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed Yes | 30c | 950$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…03c5backed Yes | 30c | 666.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…0917backed No | 70c | 666.79$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…d32ebacked Yes | 31c | 482.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 439.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 30c | 370.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 360$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 314.51$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 69c | 300.01$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 77c | 268.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 22c | 225.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 198.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 31c | 179.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 21c | 179.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Yes | 24c | 175$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 25c | 152.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 79c | 151.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 78c | 147.56$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 146.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 21c | 145$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +104%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…48adbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 20c | 110.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…2bf3backed No | 74c | 106$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 78c | 104$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…1f61backed No | 74c | 102$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…d813backed Yes | 22c | 100.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8dfdbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…13febacked Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…93fcbacked Yes | 25c | 87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…4f8cbacked Yes | 26c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 80.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…3a39backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf806…2d90backed Yes | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a1…bb70backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…8b7dbacked Yes | 28c | 73.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…8f13backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…1d98backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb995…a261backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e9…de83backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…8ec3backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 66c | 43.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d7…6c4ebacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…2aeabacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a4…692bbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…cffcbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…eb04backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…8edcbacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…d3ebbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…7f9bbacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sabrina Carpenter win Best New Artist?this page
- Will Benson Boone win Best New Artist?No won
- Will Chappell Roan win Best New Artist?Yes won
- Will Doechii win Best New Artist?No won
- Will Khruangbin win Best New Artist?No won
- Will Raye win Best New Artist?No won
- Will Shaboozey win Best New Artist?No won
- Will Teddy Swims win Best New Artist?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.