MLB · resolved market
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22269579e63c6e1a021989ae4bf9ee0539c19ad2799ccf13a469e80ee68046f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 75c | 5,083$3,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Yes | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 70c | 700$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 34c | 563.24$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.75 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 39c | 168.48$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 30c | 105.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Yes | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 32c | 95.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…4f1dbacked No | 68c | 95.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 25c | 77.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked No | 65c | 57.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Yes | 35c | 42.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked No | 79c | 14.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the Playoffs?this page
- Will the Atlanta Braves make the Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Detroit Tigers make the Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Minnesota Twins make the Playoffs?No won
- Will the New York Mets make the Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.