MLB · resolved market
Will the Atlanta Braves make the Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5bf31a5e221ef57da3c5dda436158f73b1cba3154bcf1d3c60ad37bfd07bb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked No | 12c | 2,997$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.37 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 66c | 1,695$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 10c | 1,093$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 23c | 522$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked No | 25c | 519.26$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed No | 18c | 219.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 59c | 195.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed No | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 19c | 106.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Atlanta Braves make the Playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks make the Playoffs?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers make the Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Minnesota Twins make the Playoffs?No won
- Will the New York Mets make the Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.